The rain changed to snow early this afternoon and has continued to accumulate through the afternoon and will fall heavily for the first part of the evening. I am still expecting the snow to mix with sleet and perhaps even change to all sleet. This will hold amounts down somewhat, but it’s still a big storm for so early in the season. The map below shows how much snow I am expecting by the time it’s all over.

The radar prediction for 11PM tonight shows the purple area (sleet) falling along much of the Maine Coast. Inland, heavy snow will continue at 1 to 2 inches per hour.

Storm Ends
By 5AM the snow and sleet will be ending from south to north. The radar prediction below shows where it will still be snowing north of Portland in the early morning hours of Thanksgiving, but across much of Cumberland, York and parts of Oxford Counties the storm will be over.

EARLIER BLOG BELOW

It’s mild and raining across much of southern Maine as I write this, but colder air is going to work into the storm and change the rain to snow in most locations. Those of you who live from about Portland south along the immediate few miles of the coast will end up seeing the rain last longest and therefore the snow amounts will be less.

Warm Air Above & At The Ground
The reason we have rain and some mixed precipitation this morning is the air, of course, is too warm. There is a warm layer of air at the ground and also at about 10,000 feet. The ground temperatures may prove easier to cool than those at the higher levels. This could lead to some sleet mixing in with the snow even after it changes later today.

The map below is valid around 2 p.m. and the darker blue is snowfall rates at 1 to 2 inches per hour. This is when travel can become more difficult.



During the evening, warmer air is going to change the snow back to sleet and snow along the coastline. This will cut down accumulations.

The exact number of hours of sleet after the heavy snow this afternoon will ultimately determine how much snow is recorded from this storm. It’s a very dynamic storm and if the rain lasts a bit longer before the snow or if the sleet starts a bit earlier amounts will be much lower.

The most likely places for this would be along the immediate coast including Rockland, Brunswick, Portland, Kennebunk and York, as well as surrounding towns.

Let’s look at the projected radar for 7 p.m. this evening. At that time the snow is falling across much of Maine and is accumulating. Road conditions will have deteriorated and travel will be slow.

Fast-forward five hours to midnight and now notice the purple area of much of coastal southern Maine. This is the sleet working back into the system as warmer air aloft melts the snow into rain that will then freeze into pellets before hitting the ground.

The storm winds down around the 2 a.m. to 4 a.m. timeframe and therefore if you are planning on traveling tomorrow the roads should be generally clear.

Since temperatures are going to be cold on Thanksgiving any water will have frozen and there will be ice on walkways and steps.

Cold and dry weather continues for Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 30s. It will become milder on Sunday as temperatures reach into the 40s and melt some of the snow.

Ski Country
In general most of the ski areas will see 5-10 inches of fresh snow and with the cold temperatures after the storm they will be able to make more snow as well. Skiing over the weekend should be quite good on the terrain that is open. Remember, it’s November and for this time of year, skiing is great.

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