During the last century, there was a consensus formed in Washington: China was a reasonable actor, with which we could do business and welcome to the international stage. Sure, China might not care one whit about human rights; sure, China might bully its neighbors. However, the theory went that since none of that directly involved the U.S., it didn’t much matter.

China knew better than to mess with Japan or South Korea, both of which the United States was treaty-bound to defend, and it probably lacked the technical capability to invade Taiwan, which the U.S. didn’t legally have to defend but of which we were rather fond. Moreover, engaging in relations with China was useful to America on a number of fronts. It kept any other power (besides the U.S., of course) from rising to power in the Pacific; China could help contain North Korea; and a good relationship could assist with keeping the rest of the region relatively stable. 

All of this led to the theory that it was better to encourage China’s economic growth, since the country was a useful trading (and, occasionally, diplomatic) partner, even if none of its neighbors – many of whom were our allies – quite trusted it. The assumption was that if China’s economy kept growing, eventually its rising middle class would demand a greater say in the political life of the country, leading to some sort of democratic transition – albeit, perhaps, a slow and uneven one. Still, a slow and uneven change of some kind would serve the world well, much more than any kind of violent revolution, especially when it comes to nuclear power. 

It ought to be perfectly clear to everyone by now that all of those assumptions of the past century and the last few decades of foreign policy were utter nonsense.

Rather than serving as any kind of stabilizing influence, or being a semi-useful partner that wanted to both buy our goods and produce them for us, China has emerged as the No. 1 threat to U.S. power. Sure, Russia may have gotten most of the bad PR lately, with its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its attempt to undermine our democracy, but both of those plans failed spectacularly. Russia is certainly still a problem, and we ought to do everything we can to undermine it at every turn – that’s why it’s so important that we continue to assist Ukraine. Russia is not, however, the biggest long-term threat to our national security or to global peace. The People’s Republic of China is.

That’s why it’s good to see that President Biden has not totally abandoned Donald Trump’s confrontational approach to relations with China as he has with Iran.

For the first time since the Sino-Soviet split, a U.S president correctly recognized that China could be a larger threat to U.S. national security than Russia. While critics might question Trump’s motives for doing so, this is not a new debate. Back during the 2012 presidential election campaign, Barack Obama mocked Mitt Romney for identifying Russia as our No. 1 geopolitical foe. While subsequent events have proven Romney was right, neither he nor Obama correctly identified China as our greatest long-term challenge. Obama said al-Qaida was the greatest geopolitical threat instead.

China is different. It’s a powerful nation-state – and a fellow nuclear power – bent on countering America at every turn. Much like the Soviet Union, China has propped up dictatorships all over the world and invested in infrastructure projects to expand its influence. The U.S. hasn’t faced this kind of competition since the end of the Cold War – or earlier, when one factors in the Soviet decline. That leaves us with 30 years – a whole generation – of unfamiliarity with facing a major power as a foe. There were worrying signs that we may have forgotten how to do it. 

Fortunately, the Washington consensus has reoriented itself to recognize that China is our foe. It wishes to assert itself on the world stage, and it’s long past time for us to work with European partners to counter that influence. Hopefully, this new consensus will remain and we won’t retreat to blithe assumptions about the inevitable march of democracy from years past. In 2023, rather than hoping it will be our friend, it’s important to continue countering China at every turn.

Jim Fossel, a conservative activist from Gardiner, worked for Sen. Susan Collins. He can be contacted at:
jwfossel@gmail.com
Twitter: @jimfossel

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