Now what?

If, as it now seems, Lucas Giolito requires surgery and will miss the entire season for the Red Sox, what’s the fallout for the starting rotation? Boston is likely to be without the right-handed starter after he experienced discomfort in his elbow following his last outing.

Manager Alex Cora said Tuesday that Giolito will have additional exams to determine the severity of the injury.

“We’re obviously concerned. Not a good day for us,” Cora told reporters in Florida.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweeted that Giolito, “… likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss the 2024 season, league sources tell ESPN.”

Brutal news: Initial imaging showed Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss the 2024 season, league sources tell ESPN. Giolito, who signed a two-year deal with Boston, may need surgery to repair the right-elbow damage.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 5, 2024

To state the obvious, the loss of Giolito is a crippling blow to the team’s chances for 2024. The Red Sox were already thin when it came to starting pitching. While Giolito was seen as a nice addition, he was the lone significant addition the team made to the rotation over an otherwise quiet winter, and now it’s doubtful he’ll pitch much before the 2025 All-Star break – if then.

Giolito signed a $38.5 million, two-year deal with the Red Sox this offseason. He made two starts in spring training, throwing two scoreless innings in his first outing before getting roughed up allowing four runs and three walks in 21/3 innings against Minnesota last Friday.

Thus, an already shaky staff has lost the one guy who was being most counted on to deliver innings. Giolito’s expected loss will have a domino-like impact on the rest of the rotation.

For now, it’s assumed that three starters have essentially clinched spots in the rotation, with as many as four others competing for the final two – or it that three? – spots.

A look at where they sit:

• Brayan Bello. Bello has just 39 career starts, but suddenly, he might be the guy the Red Sox count on the most. There’s little doubt that he has the highest potential ceiling among the group, but he’s yet to show the consistency necessary to win regularly at the big league level.

The danger here is that too much is placed on Bello’s shoulders. If he can make 30 or so starts and get over the 150-inning plateau, that would constitute a significant step forward, even if it’s unlikely to translate into the team contending.

• Nick Pivetta. It seems a bit odd that a guy who pitched himself out of the rotation last May could no be an integral part of this season’s group, but that’s where the Red Sox find themselves. And to Pivetta’s credit, he made great strides over the second half of the 2023 season.

The Red Sox know this much: he’s durable. Though his performance has been notoriously unpredictable, often from start to start, and sometimes from inning to inning, he posts regularly. Now, the trick will be for him to better command his stuff and settle on a repertoire that will enable him to get through a lineup three times. It helps that Pivetta has taken on more of a leadership role this spring and his energy has never been in question. Now, it’s time for results.

• Kutter Crawford. As Cora announced last week, Crawford already had a leg up on some other contenders for the rotation, and Giolito’s injury essentially assures that Crawford will be in the rotation.

He’s looked sharp early in camp after a couple of outings, and the hope is that some additional lower-half strength – Crawford added 10-12 pounds of muscle in his legs over the winter – provides him with the necessary stamina to go deeper into games.

There’s little doubt about Crawford’s pitchability and his velocity is also up. Now, it becomes a question as to whether he can be effective after 60 or so pitches. If he can routinely get the Red Sox through six innings – he pitched past the fifth just seven times last season – the Red Sox will have themselves a very solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.

• Tanner Houck/Garrett Whitlock: Grouped together here, not because they’re best friends – though they are – but because they profile so similarly. Both are 27, both have shown occasional flashes in the rotation, and both have performed better as relievers.

In a perfect world, one would have made the rotation and the other would have returned to a bullpen role, able to provide multiple innings in relief. Now, because of Giolito’s absence, that plan it out the window and it’s likely that both will start the year in the rotation.

There are no guarantees here, though, that either is capable of becoming an effective 30-start solution. Both are 27, and while it’s possible to envision either one or both becoming an effective rotation piece, there are no assurances.

And because both will almost certainly begin the year as starters, the bullpen depth will be depleted. Having one in relief, to get four or five high-leverage outs to get them to Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, would have upgraded the bullpen. Now, they’re needed elsewhere, which means someone from the Isaiah Campbell/Greg Weissert/Justin Slaten group will have to emerge into that role.

• Josh Winckowski: As he tries to transition back to the rotation following a successful year in the bullpen, Winckowski has been impressive. He’s been able to maintain his stuff for longer outings. But again here, there’s a lot of unknown. Winckowski didn’t fare well in his first try at the rotation.

He feels more confident now, and better equipped to tackle the job now. As recently as Monday, he was viewed as a nice depth option, someone whom the Red Sox could keep stretched out should they injury or under-performance occur.

Now, he’s the next man up, further diluting the bullpen.

EXHIBITION GAME: Outfielder Tyler O’Neill hit a three-run homer as Boston defeated Tampa Bay, 7-4, at Fort Myers, Florida, on Tuesday.

Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock allowed two earned runs and four hits over three innings to pick up his second Grapefruit League victory this spring.

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