Happy Groundhog Day! Predicting what the remainder of winter will be like seems somewhat comical given the frosty temperatures ahead for the weekend. While a groundhog might not seem to have much to do with the coast, the idea of predicting weather patterns by depending on animals does have a connection. As does the importance of predicting weather patterns for those who live and work along the coast.
According to the tradition of Groundhog Day, whether there will be six more weeks of winter or an early spring depends on if the famous Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on the morning of Feb. 2. If he does, then, more winter it is. And if he doesn’t, then spring will come on the earlier side. Because this column was written before this very morning, I don’t know what this year’s prediction is. But somehow, it doesn’t seem right for Mainers to trust a groundhog to make that prediction anyway.
Perhaps a coastal animal would be more appropriate. One animal with predictive powers of a sort is a shark. Because sharks are sensitive to pressure, their behavior changes when the pressure does, giving an indication of a shift in the weather that is about to come. They take refuge in deeper water when the pressure drops ahead of a storm. While this doesn’t help to predict whether or not spring will come early, it can be used to predict storms.
Also, apparently seaweed has predictive powers. If you hang dried seaweed outside and it stays wet, then it is likely to rain. Otherwise, dry weather lies ahead. This one is pretty logical since seaweeds can absorb moisture. If there is moisture in the air, the dried seaweed will soak it up and be flexible and moist.
In another riff on the groundhog, one community in Nova Scotia has selected a 50-year-old lobster named Lucy as their predictive animal of choice. Apparently, if Lucy casts a shadow, as oddly shaped and complicated as it might be, we are in for a long winter. There’s a great video describing this tradition of celebrating Lucy on Feb. 2 at bit.ly/1RreYWS. I have to think that someone in Maine has done this as well, but I have yet to hear about it.
On a more practical, and perhaps, believable note, people who live and work on the water have used basic predictive techniques for generations long before modern meteorology was able to provide detailed forecasts. Reading the wind, waves and clouds are all nuanced skills that can provide an enormous amount of information about both current and future conditions. There is the old proverb, “Wind from the west, fish bite the best. Wind from the east, fish bite the least. Wind from the north, do not go forth. Wind from the south blows bait in their mouth,” which some believe can shed light on the best fishing spots on a given day. Sayings and traditions like this are numerous. Several years ago, a friend gave me a copy of “How to Read Water: Clues and Patterns from Puddles to the Sea” by Tristan Gooley, which describes many cultures over many ages learning to decipher the water’s information.
Now we have myriad ways of getting up-to-date weather information through satellites and ocean-bound weather buoys that can send data to computers on websites that we can all access in the palm of our hands. And yet, there is something powerful about turning directly to nature to give us that information — whether it is to a groundhog, a lobster or a pattern on the water’s surface.
Susan Olcott is the director of operations at Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association.
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